ROMA (ITALPRESS) – “The geopolitical scenario, after a short period of truce, has seen the reacutise of tensions in the Middle East”. The current situation “remains, therefore, slightly more uncertain and complex the evaluation, in perspective terms, of the results of the first semester”, but “we confirm the estimate of a change of GDP in the second quarter of the year to 0.4% with an increase of 1.2% in comparison with the same period of 2025′′′. It is the photograph that emerges from the last conjunction of Confcommercio.
“Since our evaluations, even in July the Italian economy, on the thrust of a demand for consumption still positive and an industrial production estate, is expected to show a growth of the gross product of 0.2% on June and 1.2% on an annual basis,” explains Confcom. “The growth achieved today allows us to look with a certain optimism to the results of 2026, consolidating the possibilities of a change of GDP in the whole year next to 1%.” At this point, “unless surprises in the official estimates available at the end of the month, any slowdowns in economic activity will affect above all on 2027, when the direct effects of the PNRR will also cease.”.
The consumption, calculated in the metric of the ICC, “confirmed in June in positive territory, strengthening the recovery phase started at the end of last year, with a variation on the same month of 2025 of 1.8%”. To support the framework of a substantial demand hold there is the partial tendency to return inflation. “On the basis of our estimates, for the month of July a more favourable trend of energy and unturned food should have contributed to a reduction in consumer prices of 0.1% on June, resulting in a significant return of the trend change, expected to 2.5%”.
In prospective terms, “the increase in tensions with a resumption of energy prices on international markets is likely to slow this return process in August, increasing the uncertainties of families who might choose, in autumn, to return to more prudent behaviors on the side of consumption, especially for those considered less necessary”, Confcom concludes.
– Photo Ipa Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
