ROMA (ITALPRESS) – In 2026 the Italian GDP will grow by 0.9% against 0.5% previously estimated. The estimate for 2027 to 0.6% remains unchanged. This is what emerges from the midterm economic outlook of the OECD presented today in Paris. The estimates were retouched compared to the previous outlook in June, when the organization planned for Italy a 0.5% increase for 2026. For 2027, the estimate remained unchanged at 0.6%. As regards inflation, the estimate of 3% is confirmed in 2026 but the estimate for 2027 from 2.2% to 2.6% is revised. According to the Global OECD, the most recent indicators show signs of growth slowdown and inflation stabilized. In addition, actual import duties to the United States increased further from May.
World growth is expected to slow down as the effects of increased duties will begin to be felt completely. The main risks to lowering include further increases in trade barriers, an increase in inflationary tensions, increased fears of tax risks and price destabilizing corrections on financial markets that could jeopardize financial stability. On the positive side, the reduction of trade restrictions or the faster development of artificial intelligence technologies could push economic growth to a higher level. The interim report states that countries must find ways of interacting with a spirit of cooperation within the world trade system and collaborate to make trade policies more transparent and predictable.
Central banks should remain vigilant, but they can lower the reference rates in economies where underlying inflation is expected to converge towards the goal, provided inflation expectations remain well anchored. Tax discipline is needed to safeguard the sustainability of the longer term debt and allow governments to react to future shocks. We need more incisive structural reform efforts to improve the standard of living and help to benefit from the potential benefits offered by new technologies, such as artificial intelligence.
– photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
