ROMA (ITALPRESS) – Italian GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in both 2026 and 2027, after increasing by 0.5% in 2025. The increase in GDP, in the two-year forecast, would be supported entirely by domestic demand net of stocks (+0.9 and +0.5 percentage points respectively); net foreign demand, conditioned in negative from the effects of the conflict in the Middle East and the consequent increase in energy prices, would provide a negative contribution in 2026 (-0.2 p.p.) and null in 2027.
Istat notes this, pointing out that in 2026 household and ISP consumptions are expected to be decelerated compared to the previous year (+0.6% compared to +1.1% in 2025) braked by the attenuation of the positive dynamics of per capita wages and the increase in inflation; in 2027 growth is expected to be slightly accelerated (+0.7). Gross fixed investments would continue to grow, but with different intensity in the two years: the increase would be expected to +2.2% in 2026, supported by the interventions connected with the PNRR; in 2027 a significant deceleration in average year (+0.5%) caused by less favourable financing conditions and by the reduction, to current legislation, of public stimuli.
The employment, measured in terms of the working unit (ULA), would mark in 2026 a slowdown in the growth dynamic (+0.7%, after +1.3% of 2025) to which a further decline in the unemployment rate (5.5%, from 6.1% of 2025); in 2027 a deceleration of the ULA (+0.4%) and a stabilization of the unemployment rate is expected. The price trends of raw materials would be reflected in the trend of inflation, expected in strong rise in the course of 2026: the deflater of household spending would expect, on average year, to 2.9%, and then return to 2% in 2027 as a result of the normalization of international tensions.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
