ROMA (ITALPRESS) – “The international situation remains very complicated. Continuing tensions across the entire energy supply acute fears of an acceleration of inflation. Our estimate for the October inflation rate is 4.7%. 5% is, unfortunately, in sight. 2% of core inflation as well. It is not a destiny and everything remains possible.” It is from the Conjuncture of Confcom in October.
“However, the spaces to avoid such bad results shrink every day that passes with a Brent between $100 and 110 dollars per barrel. The substantial coincidence of the spot quotations and with delivery next December does not well hope. Yet, the Italian economy has highlighted, on the basis of the indicators in high frequency, a substantial hold, although in the final part of the summer a moderate slowdown of the expansion phase is recorded. Industrial production, between ups and downs, fails to find the path of recovery decided, the occupation does not grow, but neither is it reduced and, indeed, stable on the maximums of always, the trust of families and enterprises moves along a rough path”, continues.
“This, despite the fact, the demand for families is maintained in moderate but significant growth, also supported by further expansion. Our estimate is GDP growth for the month of October of 0.2% of the country and 1.0% of the population. Overall of the third quarter – Confcom notes – the availability of more information leads us to confirm the indication of a growth of 0.1% on the second quarter of 2026 and 0.9% on an annual basis, results that, on the one hand, identify the measure of slowing and, on the other, allow us to repeat our estimate of a change of 1.0% overall of the year. The consumption, calculated in the metric of the ICC, is also placed in September in positive territory, with a variation on the same month of 2025 of +1.1%, with similar dynamics for goods and services. In line with what has already been recorded for months, the trend towards improvement is widespread, with a attenuation of the marked differences in the rates of growth of the different functions of consumption that had characterized July and August”.
“The last month has seen among the most dynamic components those durable goods that for some months have marked a tendency to change from families such as cars and white and brown appliances. As a result of a higher demand for electricity, preference for consumption is confirmed, especially in the service area. The marginalized recoverys for clothing and footwear and home feeding do not diminish the difficulties of these segments that have long lived the alternation between reductions and modest improvements. In this scenario – Confcom emphasizes – the main criticism continues to be represented by the reacutise of inflation which, on the pressure of oil and gas prices generated by the Middle East conflict, reached 4.2% in September. Our estimate for October is a 0.2% change in consumer prices on September and 4.7% annually. Inflation continues to be mainly the energy component and tensions on fresh food. At present the return to values in line with the targets of monetary policy could only be achieved in the late spring of 2027“, he concludes.
– Photo Ipa Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
