ROMA (ITALPRESS) – Even in the second quarter the Italian economy shows undeniable signs of vivacity. High frequency indicators say that in April employment, tourism and industrial production are improving. Also the demand for durables (cars) continues the recovery path. In May, the confidence of families is recovering, after a problematic bimester. There are good reasons to cultivate doubts and concerns. However, if the fragile truce in the Middle East will become a period of stability, the already present signs of attenuation of the prices of energy raw materials could be consolidated, as well as could be substantially reduced the risks of difficulty in supplying. This is what emerges from the conjuncture of Confcommercio, according to which the improvement of the context would have the effect of cooling tensions on prices, reducing the negative effects resulting from the recent resumption of inflation.
If a slowdown in economic dynamics should occur, this could be limited to the months on horseback between the end of summer and the beginning of autumn. In line with this scenario, the second quarter should have been characterized by an evolution of GDP still positive in April and May and a stasis in June. The synthesis of these dynamics results, according to a first estimate, in a growth of GDP in the second quarter of 0.4% conjunctural and 1.3% on an annual basis, estimates corrupted by a positive base effect (the second quarter of 2025 was marked by stagnation). In view of what happened in the first part of 2026, and with ever more concrete signals of a possible “normalization” in the Middle East, the possibility of growth in the current year is strengthened next to 1%, even in the hypothesis of a second part of the less dynamic year.
The consumption, calculated in the metric of the ICC, is confirmed in May in positive territory, consolidating the recovery phase started at the end of 2025, with a change in the annual comparison of 1.2%. In the last month, the trend towards the improvement of volumes purchased by households is widespread, with marked recovery ideas for the automotive industry. Also the demand for services, especially those linked to the use of leisure time, is maintained constantly growing, even for the continuing thrust of tourism. In this context, the main unknown is the trend of inflation. On the basis of our estimates, for the month of June a change in consumer prices of 0.3% on May is expected, resulting in a moderate acceleration on an annual basis (3.3%). At the moment, inflationary tensions are concentrated in areas where prices directly reflect the dynamics of energy raw materials. Among the positive elements it is found that, after the stasis of May, a moderate decrease is expected for food, in line with the exhaustion of tensions on unworked food.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
