MILAN (ITALPRESS) – The Italian manufacturing has shown an ability to hold higher than expected after the accumulation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Constant price turnover increased by 0.7% in the first seven months of 2026, confirming the recovery path started in the second half of 2025, and is expected to close the growing year by 0.8%, after three consecutive years of contraction. This is what emerges from the Analysis report of the industrial sectors, realized by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, dedicated to the perspectives of the Italian manufacturing to 2028.
The recovery is still characterized by elements of fragility. The confidence indicators found in October indicate a cautious improvement of the short-term prospects for manufacturing companies, with a rise in order judgments and a balance of expectations on production that remained positive. They are consistent signals with a recovery phase, although still exposed to international uncertainty.
More dynamic nominal turnover, up 2.7% in the first seven months of the year, due to an acceleration of production prices (+2% overall of the first eight months 2026, +2.9% between May and August) reflecting the tensions recorded on energy markets and raw materials. The price rise will lead the manufacturing business to the historical maximum of 1,168 billion euros at the end of the year, increasing approximately 257 billion compared to 2019 (+4.1% on 2025). The Italian industry’s holding also emerges from industrial production data ( crude data), which recorded a +0.4% in the first eight months of 2026, in the face of -2,5% of Germany and +0.2% of France. Only Spain has shown itself more dynamic, but without going beyond a +0.9%. The framework is however dominated by a strong sectoral heterogeneity, with a growing gap between the sectors supported by investments and the productions more dependent on final consumption, still suffering due to inflationary pressures that accentuate the polarization of incomes.
The classification 2026 for turnover defined sees in fact in the head electrotechnic (+4.8%), electronic (+2.6%), pharmaceutical (+1.8%) and mechanical (+1.6%). In recovery from depressed levels the cars and motorcycle (+3%). In the negative territory producers of non-essential consumer goods (electricity -5%, furniture -2,2%, fashion system -1,2% and wide consumption -0,7%) and chemical intermediates (-1,4%), sector in strong restructuring also at European level. In the first seven months Italian exports of manufactured goods increased by 3.9% in value, with a contribution of European markets equal to 2.1%. Increased growth at constant prices, in the order of 2%. Germany, France and the countries of Eastern Europe were the main driving force. As a whole of 2026, the nominal trade balance may rise to 114,5 billion euros, from 112,8 billion in 2025, despite an expected growth of imports (+1.9% at constant prices on average year) above that of exports (+1.8%). Investment continues to be an important factor in supporting industrial demand.
Gross fixed capital investments increased by 3.4% in the second quarter and are expected to confirm a dynamic profile even in the final part of the year, favoured by tax incentives and race to finalization of Pnrr projects. Consumption, on the other hand, will meet a phase of greater fragility after the growth of the first semester (+1.1% at constant prices).
The prospects for the two-year period 2027-28 see a growing manufacturing industry, but on the pace of development. Constant price turnover is expected to increase by 0.8% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028. On the foreign front, the headlights remain focused on the European market, in particular on the revival of German demand, which represents potential support for Italian exports in the coming years. The commercial balance of the Italian manufacturing industry can reach 123 billion euros in the horizon at 2028 and also domestic demand will continue to represent an important engine of industrial activity, in particular investment in self-production of energy, redevelopment of plants, digitization and artificial intelligence.
– Intesa Sanpaolo press office source –
(ITALPRESS).
