ROMA (ITALPRESS) – In 2026 Italian GDP grows above expectations. The expected rise is +1%, substantially in line with the already acquired variation, that is what would happen at the end of the year in the presence of a conjunctural growth nothing in the two remaining quarters (without correction for working days). This is what emerges from the Autumn forecast report of the Confindustria Study Centre.
In 2027 the Italian economy should slow down (+0.6%), at a rate in line with that observed in 2025. The revision to the rise of GDP growth forecast for 2026, compared to the last March report (of +0.5 percentage points) reflects several factors: the good trend of the Italian economy in the first half of the year (+0.3% in the first quarter and +0.2% in the second quarter), with the 1st quarter revised to the rise compared to the preliminary estimate (from +0.2%).
To the positive first two quarters of 2026 a good rhythm was added in the 4th 2025, closed to +0.3%. To these he also contributed the stability of the gas price before the beginning of the war; the decisive contribution of the PNRR (concluded at the end of August), whose impact on GDP, estimated at +0,5 percentage points in 2026, pushed the dynamic especially of investments.
This contribution concerned the investments foreseen by the PNRR but also private investments supported by incentives, such as 5.0, which have been very successful among enterprises; the content transfer of energy to other goods and services; net energy and food inflation is still low (at +2.0% in September, 1.8% in August as in January), after seven months from the beginning of the relapses, and this is attributable to the fact that the war has less.
The first raises mainly the cost of transport while that of gas, which is used both as an industrial raw material and, above all, as a productive input of electricity, is so importantly impacted all sectors of the economy. It also affects the lower rise in oil price expectations thanks to the braking of world oil demand (especially in China and Japan) which followed the decline in supply (caused by war in the Gulf countries). A smaller gap between demand and supply has limited the price range.
The growth of Italian GDP of 2026 rests on consumption (+1.1%, much better than those of the families of the public ones) and on investments (+3.3%), driven overall by the buildings despite the decrease of the housing component.
On the other hand, the contribution of net foreign demand remains negative despite the growth of export (+2.7% that of goods, +3.8% that of services). In 2027 the average annual growth will suffer from the weakness of the final phase of 2026 and only moderate recovery at the beginning of the year.
This despite the positive effects of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: the progressive drop in the prices of energy raw materials that will allow the return of inflation, the reduction of uncertainty, greater confidence of families and enterprises, the sharing of trade with the Gulf countries.
-Photograph Confindustria-
(ITALPRESS).
