BRUSSELS (BELGIUM) (ITALPRESS) – The debate on the future revision of the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) is scheduled as one of the most important European dossiers of the coming years. EU legislation on tobacco and nicotine products will not be limited to redefining the regulatory framework of the market: its effects are likely to affect occupational levels, industrial investments and the same fight against smoking. To take stock of the economic and social implications of the future TPD are two distinct studies published today, which invite the institutions to a careful assessment of the risks.
The first report, entitled “The Hidden Cost of EU Regulation” and signed by the European Policy Innovation Council (EPIC) – independent think tank based in Brussels – analyses the critical issues arising from strict or unclear European regulations. According to EPIC’s analysis, the adoption of a highly restrictive regulatory scenario, compared to an approach proportional to the risk profile of different products, could result in an impressive cost for the European Union: up to 79.6 billion euros of GDP per year, with a potential loss of over 182,000 jobs and a drop of 17,6 billion euros in investments between 2026 and 2030.
The critical element identified by EPIC concerns the overlap between traditional combustion cigarettes and alternative non-combustible products. Learning deeply different categories of technology and consumption is likely, according to experts, to weaken the regulated market, pushing some consumers towards the illegal circuit.
The impact of the European dossier on the Italian economy is deepened in the second study, “Tobaccòs Economic Footprint in Italy and the Cost of a Restrictive TPD Revision”, conducted by the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart.
In Italy, the tobacco and nicotine sector represents a strategic sector: in 2023 it generated approximately 29.6 billion euros of GDP and supported 186.200 occupied between agriculture, manufacturing, logistics and distribution network. Italy has also established itself as a top-notch production hub for innovative categories, which today constitute approximately 45% of the revenues of the sector and that from 2014 to today have attracted more than a billion euros of investments in plants and research.
The estimates of the University indicate that, by 2030, the gap between a proportional regulatory scenario and a rigidly restrictive one could apply to Italy up to 13,6 billion euros of GDP, risking approximately 90,900 jobs and 4,4 billion investments.
While starting from different areas and scenarios, the two studies converge on one point: the impact of new rules will depend on how they will be defined. It will therefore be decisive to evaluate in advance
effects, distinguish between different product categories, ensure investment certainty and strengthen the contrast to the illicit market.
– photo Ipa Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
