MESTRE (VENEZIA) (ITALPRESS) – In 2025 we had 24.1 million people employed and paid almost 23.2 million pensions: a ratio of 1 to 1. In the 1980s, however, it was 3 to 1. The decline in births and the rise in life expectancy that has occurred over the last fifty years have pushed Italy – and most of the Western countries – towards a very worrying demographic decline, with inevitable consequences for the world of work. The analysis was carried out by the CGIA Study Office. In the short term, according to the CGIA, the framework is intended to aggravate. The forecast indicates that between 2025 and 2029, 3 million Italians will be released from the labour market. Of these, a share of approximately 74 per cent of the total, i.e. 2,244,700 people, will affect the central and northern regions. Therefore, over a few years it will be assisted by a real “exodus” from the offices and production facilities, with millions of workers destined to move from employment to inactivity. This will result in social, economic and employment repercussions of historical importance for the country. The phenomenon, however, has long been worrying many entrepreneurs, struggling with a growing difficulty in finding available labour for factory and shipyard activities. Let’s figure out in a few years, when the “flight” of employees and workers towards the pension will “empty” offices and sheds. This year, according to the Study Office of the CGIA, pension spending is destined to touch 351.8 billion euros: 2.7 percent more than we paid last year, a trend in line with the inflation trend that this year should grow by 2.8 percent. But in 2029, to legislation in force, the total amount of expenditure to pay all pension allowances should increase by 36.8 billion, attesting itself on 388.6 billion euros: practically 10.5 percent more, while inflation, according to forecasts, should rise by “onlys” 5.8 points. Evidently, the “exodus” effect will begin to be felt even on the accounts of our social security system.
Population ageing is not just a demographic issue: it is also an economic problem, especially for small and micro enterprises. In many European countries, and in Italy in particular, the generational replacement in the labour market has been blocked. Or almost. Workers who retire are not always replaced by young people in sufficient numbers and this imbalance is becoming a structural link to growth. For small companies the first risk is operational. The shortage of labour reduces production capacity and makes it more difficult to cope with key roles, especially in technical and manufacturing sectors. It is not just about finding people, but finding appropriate skills in times that are compatible with business needs. The result is greater uncertainty in processes and an increasing organizational fragility. In spite of the last 4 years the employment in Italy has increased by 1,2 million units, we are always queue in the EU for the female employment rate and in the last positions for the youth. Therefore, always according to the Study Office of the CGIA, if we want to mitigate at least partially the exit of the 3 million workers who by 2029 will retire, we must widen the occupational audience by finding work force between women and young people. It is an important challenge that we must not be underestimated: the future of our economic system lies. From the analysis of the balance between the number of occupants and pensions paid in 2025, the most “balanced” situation in Italy occurred in the Metropolitan City of Reggio Calabria: the difference was -90.368. Follow the province of Taranto with -87.189, Lecce with -85.508 and Messina with -76.936. It should be noted that the high number of pension allowances paid in the Mezzogiorno is not attributable to the excessive presence of old-age/anticipated pensions, but to the high spread of welfare and invalidity treatment. A worrying result that demonstrates with all its evidence the effects caused in recent decades by four phenomena closely related to each other: denatility, progressive ageing of the population, a rate of employment among the lowest in the EU and the presence of many irregular workers. The combination of these factors has gradually reduced the number of regular occupants and, consequently, increased the audience of welfare receptors.
It is very probable, according to the Study Office of the CGIA, that in the next few years the worst situation throughout the country, even in the most economically developed northern areas. However, already today there are 11 northern provinces that, like almost all of the southern ones, record a number of pensions paid higher than that of the active workers. They are: Lecco with -188, Belluno with -213, La Spezia with -602, Alessandria with -1.227, Ferrara with -1.548, Sondrio with -1,869, Massa-Carrara with -2.731, Vercelli with -5.351, Rovigo with -5.652 and Biella with -9.153. The geographical situation of the North most disallineata is recorded in Savona. In the Ligurian capital of the west the balance was -9,326. Two provinces of Liguria on four present an early result from the minus sign, while in Piedmont are three out of eight. Of the 102 provinces of Italy monitored in this analysis by the Study Office of the CGIA, “only” 54 present a positive balance. Finally, the only territorial realities of the Mezzogiorno that present a positive difference are Catania (+475), Matera (+1.127), Pescara (+3.454) and, in particular, Ragusa (+16.241). Analyzing the balance between the number of pensions and the number of employees all regions in the Mezzogiorno have a negative figure. The most critical situations affect Sicily with -186.462, Calabria with -220.349 and, especially, Puglia with -263.020. The only region of the North with negative balance is Liguria (-4.767) and among those of the Centre we see the Marche (-10.489) and Umbria (-24.094). With so many pensioners and few young people, enterprises are also in serious difficulty. Highly skilled professional figures have now become an almost impossible task. In 2024 the region showing the percentage index of over 50 on the total of the highest private employees was Friuli Venezia Giulia with 35.7. It means that every 100 employees, there are 35.7 who are over 50 years old. Liguria with 35,6, Basilicata with 35,1, Tuscany with 34,5, Piemonte and Molise both with 34,3. The average national figure was 32.7. The less “colpite” regions from this phenomenon – although for some years they are still forced to deal with this problem – are Puglia with 30.6 percent, the Aosta Valley with 30.4, Sicily with 30.2, Calabria and Trentino Alto Adige both with 29.8.
– photos of repertoire IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
