MILAN (ITALPRESS) – Luigi Lovaglio, CEO of Mps, plays his hand. In Siena the atmosphere is that of the great vigils and the banker of Lucan origins, which has already resurrected the Monte dei Paschi when everyone gave it to dealer, is about to play his staff all-in. The appointment is scheduled for tomorrow morning, Thursday 20 August: an extraordinary board of directors of Mps called emergency to disconnect the 30.6 billion Euro bomb of the Opas launched by Carlo Messina and its battleship Intesa Sanpaolo. From prey to predator in one night, transforming the world’s oldest bank into a clamorous financial Risiko.
The plan, whispered among the corridors of Piazza Affari and anticipated by the Sun 24 Hours, has the complexity of acrobatic finance.
Lovaglio is not limited to defending itself: it attacks on two fronts. The first includes an Ops (public exchange offer) on Banco Bpm, reopening a dossier that seemed dead and buried at the end of July. The second front is an offer on Banca Generali, referring to a script already tried a year ago by Alberto Nagel at the time managing director of Mediobanca to defend himself from the blitz of Lovaglio. Then the maneuver was rejected by the partners. We’ll see now. A double hit that of Mps who, if he went to port, would change Italian finance, moving the axis of banking power and forcing to counter-offensive.
But financial battles are not a gala lunch. And for Lovaglio the road is sprinkled with mine, starting from the passivity rule. The rule prohibits a company under attack to perform acts of disturbance without the free way of the shareholders’ meeting. And here the numbers dance. With a 64% turnout in the last axis of April, to approve a capital increase at the service of the wedding would serve an extraordinary majority around 42% of the capital. A very high threshold, almost an Everest for Lovaglio, considering that Intesa Sanpaolo plays with at least three months of advantage on the calendar, aiming to start its offer between November and December.
As if not enough, in order to conquer Banco Bpm it is necessary to convince the French of Crèdit Agricole, who armor Piazza Meda with their 29.3% and a few weeks ago had rejected any integration project between the Banco and the Senese group. For Banca Generali Lovaglio has a wildcard in his pocket: 13.2% of the Lion of Trieste held by Mediobanca (in turn controlled by Mps). That package is strategic. It could be ceded to cash and lighten regulatory constraints. Who could buy it? The clues lead straight to Andrea Orcel and his Unicredit, already according to Generali’s shareholder with 10%. But the Roman banker, while defining itself a “observer” of the Italian resiko, is already impantased in the tiring climbed to the German Commerzbank. Hard to open a second front in the shadow of Madonnina.
At Piazza Affari traders chew caution and sell on the news. The market does not trust the last minute miracles: Mps yields 1.8% to 11.8 euros, remaining slightly below the price of the Opas of Intesa (which maintains a prize of 2.2 cents). Banco Bpm loses 0.2% to 16.6 euros and Generali 1.2% to 42.9 euros. The only toast is Banca Generali, which tears a +2.04% to 67.6 euros, inflamed by speculative bets. From all the protagonists of the story, for now, only an icy and institutional “no comment”.
Many observers suspect that Lovaglio – assisted by the heavyweights of Ubs, BofA, BonelliErede and White & Case – is above all a psychological move to force Carlo Messina to turn his wallet and raise the offer price. Messina swears there will be no raise, but the game is open. The Consob wanted to see us clear, asking explanations about the old flirtations between Mps and Banco Bpm, with Siena that responded on 4 August.
In this climate of financial electricity, also polyticto decide to take time and slow down the engine turns. In fact, the meeting was postponed until 25 August, initially scheduled for tomorrow, between the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti and the local Tuscan administrations (the governor Eugenio Giani, the president of the Province Agnese Carletti and the mayor of Siena Nicoletta Fabio). The Treasury, which is still a shareholder at 4.9%, prefers to wait for the fog of the battle of the board of directors tomorrow before discovering their cards on the future of the bank. The chess game just started.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
