ROMA (ITALPRESS) – In 2026, with an increase of 0.9% – substantially like France (+1%) but more than twice Germany (+0.4%) – and consumption at 1.2%, Italy will score better results than those achieved in 2025. Along the Peninsula, however, the recovery continues to proceed at different speeds: to pull the growth are mainly the regions of Central-North, while the Mezzogiorno, also because of lower incomes and the continuous loss of population, maintains more contained rhythms, in particular on the consumption of the families that, in many regions of this area, still remain under the levels of 2007. This is what emerges from an analysis of the Confcommercio Study Office on GDP and regional consumption 2025-2026.
For the current year, Lombardy confirms itself as “locomotive” of the country, resulting, moreover, the only Italian Region to lead at the same time the classification of GDP and that of consumption (respectively, +1.2% and +1.8%), to follow Trentino-Alto Adige (Pil +1% and consumption +1.5%) and Lazio (+1% and +1.4%). In line with the GDP rankings are Basilicata and Calabria (both with a +0.6%) that record the weakest performances also for consumption (respectively +0.4% and +0.5%). This trend, according to Confcommercio, confirms the risk of further enlargement of the territorial differences between North and South. To reduce this “phorbice” remains, therefore, the main condition for making growth more balanced and lasting.
“Analyzing the most recent dynamics – we read in the analysis – we see how the favorable legacy left by 2025 (three tenths of GDP growth and consumption) have been associated, in the first part of 2026, signs of undeniable liveliness of our economic system. The first months of the current year were, in fact, characterized by positive signs of improvement of consumption and GDP, by a further increase of tourist attendance and a moderate recovery of industrial production. At the same time, employment remained at its peak with growth signals in some ways unexpected. The recovery of inflation, albeit sudden, seems at the moment restricted to energy with limited effects on the rest of the system. The underlying inflation is maintained on values close to 2%.”.
The first quarter of 2026, according to the second estimates of Istat, would show a GDP growth of 3 tenths of point and 8 tenths of point on a tendential basis. These dynamics – which overlap comforting data for the first months of the second trimester, regarding industrial production, tourist presences, new car registrations to private individuals and intentions of purchase of durable goods – lead to estimate for 2026, although in the presence of a slowdown during the second semester, a GDP growth of 0.9% and 1.2% for consumption (better results than those achieved in 2025).
“Despite the crisis of recent years (Covid, war in Ukraine, recovery of inflation), the Italian economy has grown, also thanks to the stimulus of the PNRR, in the period 2020-2024, at an average annual rate of 1.1%, signaling a marked improvement regarding the creeping recession of the period 2008-2019 (-0.4%) – emphasizes Confcommercio -. These long-term dynamics have affected, even with different intensity, the entire national territory, with appreciable recovery ideas also for the regions of the Mezzogiorno. After a more dynamic period, 2025 marked, for our country, the return to a very low growth rate (0.5%), despite an evolution of demand by households (+1%) more toned than long-term: -0.2% annual average change in the period 2008-2019 and +0.3% in the period 2020-2024′′.
On the side of consumption, referring to those carried out on the territory – thus including the spending of tourists and excluding that of the residents carried out outside the region – the Mezzogiorno also showed in 2025 more modest dynamics than the national data. In addition to reflecting less editorial readiness, the dynamics of the Mezzogiorno also incorporate the effects of continuous loss from the point of view of the population, especially the one that focuses on the bands that produce income and have higher levels of expenditure.
“Elements that also affect estimates for 2026. In terms of perspective, the trend towards improving economic activity and consumption estimated for 2026 should, in fact, be slightly more marked in the Central-North regions. For the Mezzogiorno the expected dynamics are substantially in line with what was found in 2025, resulting in a marginal extension of the already substantial differences existing between the different areas of the country – Confcommercio concludes. Despite the improvements expected for the current year according to our estimates of GDP and consumption on the territory, even in 2026 many regions, especially in the Mezzogiorno and with particular regard to the demand of families, will suffer lower levels than in 2007.”.
– photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
