ROMA (ITALPRESS) – “The high frequency indicators, available to date, reflect a conjunctural framework that as a whole still presents surprising elements of dynamism. In a context in which employment stands on the maxims – and does not grow further for reasons that arise from the international crisis – and industrial production, finally, signals some positive point, to support growth are essentially the services and demand of families. The continuation of the Middle East conflict, with the inevitable pressure on energy prices, the consequent acceleration of inflation and the fearful effects on supply, is destined to generate significant effects in the coming months.” This is what emerges from the Congiuntura Confcommercio report of May.
“The size and timing remain the biggest unknown, opening the field to the pure conjectures on the next future. For now, it remains only to record that many of the problems that were initially expected to manifest in this spring, could be placed later in time, leaving room for a satisfying 2026, but with worse repercussions on the following year – explains Confcommercio -. In line with this scenario, the first quarter in growth, with a very brilliant March, April and May would be characterized by an evolution of GDP still positive but in sensitive economic slowdown. According to our estimates, in May GDP, in the wake of dynamics still favorable for many of the activities of services and a stabilization of industrial production, should grow marginally on April (+0.1%), bringing the change on an annual basis to 1.5%”.
“The data of the last two months, associated with a favorable legacy left from March and in comparison with a period of stasis of the Italian economy in 2025, suggest the possibility of a second quarter of 2026 still growing. All this considered, and taking into account the fact that 2026 has three working days more than 2025, in the hypothesis of a normalization of the international situation at the end of next summer it would also be possible to exceed 0.6% of the variation of the GDP indicated by the Government in the DFP – emphasizes the association of category -. The consumption, calculated in the metric of the ICC, remains in positive territory in April, after a very favorable March also for an early Easter effect, with a change in the annual comparison of 1.3%. In line with what has been observed in recent months, the tendency to recovery of demand appears substantially widespread, with marked signs of improvement for the automotive, although it cannot be said if of a transitory or permanent nature. Although with appreciable positive ideas also among the goods, it is confirmed the driving role of many services whose demand is linked to the use of leisure time, with a non-secondary contribution of the foreign component of the question”.
“In this context, the most critical element is the re-acutisation of inflation which, according to our estimates, for the month of May should be at 3.4%, further acceleration than the previous months, returning to values that were not seen from the end of the summer of 2023 – explains Confcommercio -. Major pressures continue to focus on energy (domestic and mobility) to which the tensions on unworked food are added, generated by previous situations. The permanence of this situation makes the transfer of impulses more and more probable to other chains, resulting in possible negative effects in the coming months not only on the trust of families, but also in terms of consumer behaviour via less real disposable income”.
– photo logo Confcommercio –
(ITALPRESS).
