The slowdown that is going through luxury is not a crisis in the traditional sense of the term. It is rather a phase of structural adjustment, in which the sector is redefining its growth base.
In 2025, the luxury and fashion market entered a phase of stabilization, flat or slightly negative growth depending on the regions. The first questions that arise in the minds of industry experts are: what segment of consumers is supporting and sustaining this growth in the future? How is the question changing?
One of the most relevant changes in 2025 concerns the composition of the application. Boston Consulting Group estimates that today 0.1% of luxury consumers generate about 23% of global sales, while the top 1% exceed 40% abundantly. In parallel, the audience of aspiring customers — historically fundamental to volumes and visibility — shows signs of slowing down. The causes of this slowdown are to be identified not so much in a loss of interest towards luxury, but in a redefinition of spending priorities. Also according to BCG, about a third of aspiring consumers has reduced the purchase rate in the last 12 months, favoring experiences, travel and savings.
In the United States, this tendency to resize the aspiring segment is very evident and pronounced. Several sources indicate that credit cards for luxury goods declined in the first months of 2025 compared to the previous year. At the same time, the Saks Global Luxury Pulse shows that only 28% of American luxury consumers are optimistic about the economy in the short term, and less than half plans to increase spending within three months.
In Europe the situation is different, thanks to a sector of fashion and luxury that continues to be supported by international tourism and a local clientele more accustomed to a measured and less impulsive consumption.
In this context of uncertainty and slowdown, the performance of some maisons is often read as an exception, but in reality, is the result of consistent choices over time. Brands like Brunello Cucinelli or Hermès continue to grow because they have maintained a strict discipline on product, distribution and communication.
Brunello Cucinelli, for example, has communicated a expected growth around 10% annually, with positive performances in all regions and a strong demand on core categories. Hermès continues to operate with waiting lists, a highly controlled channel mix and extremely loyal customers.
Both of these Brands have an operating model based on proposing a niche product, exclusive, limited in quantities and not characterized by mass marketing investments. In addition, both of these maisons are characterized by the choice of measured and qualitative growth, instead of fast, which allowed them to maintain control over production, distribution and assortment. Ultimately, neither of these two Brands overloads the new market, favoring the longevity of the product and image.
In this new context, the real challenge for brands will be to manage a growing complexity: a more fragmented customer base, less predictable purchase cycles, higher expectations on product, service and coherence of the brand. Growth will no longer be widespread, but it will belong to those who will correctly interpret a more conscious question.
L’articolo The luxury after “aspirational”: when growth moves almost all upwards comes from IlNewyorkese.
