VENICE (ITALPRESS) – According to the estimates of the Study Office of the CGIA, the military attack on Iran started last Saturday risks to present a very salty account to Italian companies: almost 10 billion euros more in 2026. The price of gas and electricity recorded in recent days is particularly heavy. If the current tensions were to be translated into structural energy costs, Italian companies could be able to pay €7.2 billion more for electricity and €2.6 billion for gas this year. A percentage change compared to 2025 of +13.5%. The estimates elaborated by the artisans of Mestrines are based on some precise hypotheses: consumption in 2025-2026 in line with the latest available (2024); average annual electricity price of 150 euros per MWh; average gas price to 50 euros, thus maintaining a ratio of 3 to 1 between electricity and gas, in line with the average observed in the three years 2023-2025. In this scenario, the combined effect of energy recovery risks further compressing the margins of enterprises, already tested by an unstable international context. The entrepreneurial realities most penalised by the increase of the bills would be those located in the regions where the presence of commercial and productive activities is more widespread. Like Lombardy that should record an increase of energy costs of almost 2,3 billion euros.
They follow Emilia Romagna with +1.2 billion, Veneto with 1.1 billion, Piedmont with 879 million and Tuscany with 670 million. On the eve of the Israeli-American attack on Iran (February 27th), the gas exchanged at 32 euros to the megawatt and electricity at 107,5 euros. Within a few days (at March 4, 2026) the prices fell to 55,2 and 165,7 euro respectively, and then to a little. A surge that reflects geopolitical tensions and uncertainty on markets. It is inevitable that energy quotations react to a conflict in such a delicate area for global balances. Much will depend on the duration and intensity of the crisis: the longer the comparison is prolonged, the greater the risk of further rise. However, it should be remembered that the current scenario is very different from that experienced four years ago, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In 2022 the average gas price reached 303,1 Euros at the Megawattora, while electricity averaged 123.5 Euros. Today, even in the presence of a significant rise, we are far from those peaks: the average of 2025 stands at 116,1 euro for electricity and 38.7 for gas. Numbers that invite to caution, but that resize the comparison with the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine.
– photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
