Studio Logista-Ipsos, the illegal market of smoke products is worth 1.2 mld

ROMA (ITALPRESS) – In 2025, the market for smoke products and not smoke in official channels is worth approximately €4.5 billion. The main share continues to be represented by traditional tobacco with 18.3 billion euros, while inhalation sticks are 4.4 billion euros and the category of e-Cig comes to 1,8 billion euros, data confirming the significant role for the economy of the country. This is what emerges from the results of the third edition of “Products from smoke and not from smoke: study on the phenomenon of illegality”, on data of 2025, presented by Logista, main distributor in Europe of products and services for points of sale, in collaboration with Ipsos Doxa. In this market the use of non-official channels represents a trend in constant growth over the last three years, from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024. In 2025 this phenomenon continues to have a significant impact involving 13.8% of consumers, equal to 1.8 million people. Despite the growth of the use of non-official channels, the value of the illicit market, about 1,2 billion euros, equal to 4.8% of the total market, remains substantially in line with the previous year (5% in 2024), thanks also to the partial return of the electronic cigarette market in the perimeter of legality. The presentation of the survey saw the presence, among others, of Licia Ronzulli, vice president of the Senate; Claudio Durigon, undersecretary of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policies; Federico Freni, undersecretary of the Ministry of Economy and Finance; Federico Rella, vice president and director of Corporate Affairs Logista Italy; Mario Antonelli, National President of the Italian Federation Tabaccai; Gianfranco Labib Boughdady, National President Assotabaccai. The methods of purchase confirm the trends already known in previous years: for traditional tobacco, about two thirds of unofficial sales still pass through physical channels, while, in the case of electronic cigarettes, illegality runs mainly online, from which it comes about 61% of illegal purchases. The purchase of products from smoke and not from smoke through unofficial channels generated lacked revenue for 690 million euros, potential employment impact for 5,900 jobs, and a loss in terms of turnover (production, distribution and sale) of approximately 630 million euros. The damage to the herb is equally divided between traditional tobacco and e-Cig as a result of the increase in taxation in 2025, while the loss in terms of turnover is mainly linked to e-Cig products whose market is expanding. The European Commission’s proposal for a revision of the European Directive Excise on Tobacco (T.E.D.), aims to harmonize tax rules between Member States by increasing the taxation of smoke products and not smoking and reducing consumer access to illegal markets. However, Ipsos Doxa research shows that the increases proposed by the Commission would not lead to the desired results, 1 interviewed out of 10, in fact, said that it would be used to purchase via non-official channels. On the data collected by the Firm, Logista estimated that only increases for traditional tobacco would lead to erarial losses for the Italian state quantifiable in more than 1 billion euros and a potential employment impact of additional 500 units, for a total of 6,400 jobs. With the entry into force of the Security Decree in 2025, the so-called light cannabis, characterized by a low THC content, was reclassified as illegal. The analysis of Ipsos Doxa shows a reduction in overall volumes, which can be attributed to the contraction of physical points of sale, but with an increase in the incidence of purchases through parallel markets. 80% of respondents believe that illegality in this sector is awidespread problem on a national scale, in continuity with the previous year. In public opinion, physical purchase remains the main reference of illegality (38%), but also increases the perception of online risk, which passes from 15% to 21%. Among those who use non-official channels, on the other hand, the idea that the problem mainly concerns purchases through physical channels (46%, against 25% of 2024). The new law prohibiting the online sale of electronic cigarettes with nicotine, in force since 2025, is still little known: among the users of new generation products, 40% are not aware of it and only 15% are considered well informed. The idea that buying from unofficial channels also remains widespread is a low risk of being discovered and sanctioned. “The results clearly show the impact of illegality on the country system – estimated in 690 million euros of missing revenue – but show at the same time a level of containment in line with the previous years, confirming the effectiveness of the action of the institutions and the activity carried out by the supervisory bodies – says Federico Rella, Vice-President and Director Corporate Affairs Logista Italy –. The main novelty of Studio 2026 concerns the deepening of the effects of the new European Excise Directive: on the basis of the evidence collected, the estimates of Logista show how the speculated relapses, in the absence of real fiscal harmonization, can determine relevant impacts on the economic system, with a potential loss of more than 1 billion euros of Erasmus revenue and 6,400 jobs. We hope that, under the Cypriot Presidency, the discussion on the Directive will end in a balanced and non-ideological way, listening to the demands of the operators of the sector and the entire supply chain,” he concludes.

– photo press office Logista –(ITALPRESS).

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