ROMA (ITALPRESS) – “According to the projections recently spread by the ECB, in 2026 inflation would be higher than the objective, with a gradual return in the following year, and economic growth would be lower than previous estimates. If energy shock was stronger and more persistent than expected in the basic scenario, inflation would increase further while growth would be weaker.” Thus the governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, during the 132nd annual ordinary assembly of participants.
“The scenario quickly deteriorated in the first weeks of 2026. Tensions with Iran, acuitesi in the spring of 2025, have become a broad military confrontation that today involves the Middle East, a crucial area for the global supply of energy and essential raw materials. Exports through the Hormuz Strait were almost interrupted and significant damage to production and refining infrastructure is emerging. Even in the event of a rapid cessation of hostilities, the return to conditions ordered in the energy market would require short times. The most immediate effect of the conflict was a strong increase in gas and oil prices, resulting in a weakening of growth prospects and new inflationary pressures. More generally, a context of high uncertainty is consolidated, which is likely to continue beyond the acute phase of the conflict,” he added.
“Meaning relapses of raw materials could result from damage to energy infrastructure,” due to the conflict in Iran. “In addition, any interruptions in global value chains could result in increases in the prices of intermediate goods, increasing pressure on consumer prices. The intensity of these effects will depend crucially on the transmission of shocks to wages and repercussions on expectations, with the risk of a vicious circle between prices and wages.”.
“The uncertainty and tightening of financial conditions have rekindled fears of a deterioration of the conditions of access to credit. Monetary policy is again faced with a negative shock of supply in a context of high uncertainty, as already happened in 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Compared to 2022, monetary policy is now in a more favourable position to safeguard price stability: official rates are in line with the estimated level of the neutral rate; medium and long-term inflation expectations are anchored; labour market conditions are less tense. Moreover, the banking system as a whole shows a high profitability and a solid asset position,” he explained.
“The Governing Council of the ECB in March decided to keep official rates unchanged, reasserting that its decisions will continue to be guided, from time to time, by an overall assessment of the available data. The Council’s determination to maintain inflation at 2% in the medium term remains firm. In such a uncertain and constantly evolving context, it will be essential to carefully monitor expectations and prevent reversal effects on wages while ensuring that monetary policy action remains proportionate and consistent with the mandate,” Panetta said.
BANKITALIA, TORNA POSITIVO RISULTATO LORDO PER CIRCA 3 MLD
“In the years 2023 and 2024 the Bank of Italy had reported gross losses equal, respectively, to 7,1 and 7,3 billion; already in presenting the budget of 2022 we had anticipated a return to profit from this year. The gross result is now back positive for about 3 billion. The improvement, of more than 10 billion, mainly reflects the effects of monetary policy. The fall in the official rates and the budgetary constraints resulted in a sharp improvement in the margin of interest. In previous years the profitability had been penalised by the increase in the cost of liabilities in euros determined by the rise of official rates, exceptional for intensity and speed, necessary to counter the strong increase in inflation”, he added.
“Considering that in 2025 the gross result has returned positive, I propose to attribute to the participants a dividend of 340 million to the net profit of 1.652 million. This amount has been recognised since the beginning of the dividend distribution policy in 2015; it has also been distributed in the last two years, through the integration taken from the special post for the stabilization of dividends. The special post – reset as a result of the aforementioned uses – would be fed for 40 million. Compared to the detention threshold of 5% provided for by law, 1,040 shares of participation in the capital of the Bank, to which they do not have economic rights,” he explained.
“The corresponding dividend, equal to 1,178,667 euros, is therefore attributed, as provided by the Statute, to the ordinary reserve. The residual profit for the State would amount to 1,272 million, approximately twice as much as 2024. In the last ten years the participants have been recognized altogether 2.9 billion; in the same period the resources allocated to the State have reached 41,3 billion, of which 34,8 on net profit and 6.5 paid as current taxes, for the purposes Ires and Irap”.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
