ROMA (ITALPRESS) – In the first quarter of 2026 the assessments of the enterprises on the general economic situation became more unfavourable: the balance between the improvement and worsening judgments was reduced by 20 percentage points compared to the previous survey. This is what emerges from the investigation of the Bank of Italy conducted on the fringe of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. The perspectives of enterprises on their operating conditions have affected fears for the increase of the price of oil and the accelerated uncertainty attributable to economic and political factors: in the industry in the strict sense and in the services, the balance between the judgments of improvement and worsening has become even more negative, to -19 percentage points (from -3 of the previous survey). The deterioration is even more accentuated in the comparison between the evaluations collected before and after the outbreak of the conflict, especially in industry in the strict sense.
The share of industrial enterprises that prefigure a worsening in the next three months has tripled (to 39%), while that of enterprises that expect an improvement has halved (to 5%). The balance between the rate of increase and decrease of sales has decreased in all sectors, almost to zero (from 9 points last quarter). The deterioration has more markedly affected services (at 2 points, from 13) and constructions (at 8, from 21), while maintaining on positive values; in industry in the strict sense the balance has instead become negative (at -3 points, from 3). The foreign demand judgments have also worsened compared to the previous survey (at 4 points, from 7), affecting entirely the decrease recorded in industry in the strict sense. The expectations of total sales in the next quarter remain overall positive, although with significant differences between sectors and dimensional classes.
Despite the uncertainty about the evolution of the macroeconomic framework caused by the outbreak of the conflict, the expected increase in employment was more sustained compared to the previous survey: the percentage of enterprises that foresees an expansion of the sector exceeded that of those who anticipated a contraction of 9 percentage points in industry (from 5 in December), 15 points in services (from 8) and 21 points in buildings (from 20). The judgements of the companies on the conditions to invest are clearly worsened than the previous survey: the balance between the responses of improvement and worsening decreased by 21 percentage points (at -30). The decline mainly reflects the strong deterioration observed between the companies interviewed after 28 February, for which the balance fell to -42 points. Nevertheless, the forecasts of enterprises on nominal expenditure for fixed investments – both for the current semester and for the entire year 2026 – remained substantially unchanged.
– photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
