ROMA (ITALPRESS) – The expected growth at 12 months of wages averages around 2 percent. Those for the next three months on the economic conditions in which enterprises operate have improved slightly, reflecting less negative effects of uncertainty attributable to economic and political factors and commercial policies. Employment would continue to expand over the next three months. This is what emerges from the Survey on expectations of inflation and growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 conducted by the Bank of Italy.
The survey was conducted between 20 November and 16 December 2025 at Italian companies in industry and services with at least 50 employees. The gradual improvement of judgments on the general economic situation since the second quarter of 2025 continued. Judgments and expectations of both domestic and foreign demand have also been more favourable than the previous survey, with the exception of construction expectations. Compared to the previous quarter, judgments on conditions to invest are less unfavourable, with a slight improvement in industry in the strict sense and in services, in the face of worsening in buildings; nominal investment expenditure as a whole of 2026 would continue to grow compared to the previous year. A significant share of manufacturing companies said they used Transition 4.0 and Transition 5.0 incentives.
The growth of its sales prices has been slightly reduced due to the overall economy and the expected dynamic for the next 12 months remains moderate. Consumer inflation expectations fell on all horizons and are between 1.6 and 1.8 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance between the improvement and the worsening of the general economic situation showed further recovery while remaining negative. The share of companies that expressed stability judgments remains predominant, without particular differences between sectors; in relation to the September survey, the reviews of larger companies have become less unfavourable. The judgments on the trend of total and foreign demand have improved both with respect to last survey and with respect to that of the corresponding period in 2024, exposed to a greater uncertainty regarding the consequences of US commercial policies.
The balance between companies that have reported an expansion of the total demand and those that have indicated a contraction has been equal to 9 percentage points (from one in the third quarter). The balance of judgments on total demand remained significantly higher in buildings (21 points) and services (13) than in industry in a strict sense (3). Industry companies in the strict sense and services are expected to expand in the first quarter of 2026. The balance between enterprises which prefigure an increase in demand and those waiting for a contraction was particularly high among enterprises with at least one thousand employees (39 percentage points, from 29 in the previous survey). In construction the balance was reduced (at 26 points, from 38 in the previous quarter), while remaining on a higher level than in other sectors. Three-month export expectations improved compared to the previous survey, particularly in services, where the balance increased by 9 percentage points (at 13); in industry the balance grew less but reached higher levels (at 21 points).
Enterprises continue to forecast an increase in employment in the next three months, at a substantially unchanged pace compared to the previous survey in industry in the strict sense and in services, more supported in construction. Compared to the end of 2024 the share of enterprises expected a nominal increase in wages in the next 12 months greater than 4 percent, especially for companies in industry and services (to 4, from 8). For the whole of the enterprises the increase in nominal wage, at equal framement, expected for the next 12 months is on average at 2.2 percent. The negative balance of business judgments on economic conditions in the next three months has slightly improved in industry and services (to -3 points from -6), benefiting from the attenuation of the negative effects of uncertainty attributable to economic and political factors and commercial policies. In the constructions the balance remained positive, but was reduced compared to the previous survey (at 3 points from 7) due to the worsening of the expectations of the enterprises whose activity is strongly dependent on the National Resumption and Resilience Plan (PNRR).
Business judgments indicate a slight improvement in conditions to invest in industry in a strict sense and in services and worsening in buildings; These conditions remain largely unfavourable, but less than in the previous survey (-9 percentage points, from -13). Approximately one third of the companies plans to expand nominal investment spending, both in the first half of 2026 compared to the second of 2025, and in the whole of the current year compared to the one just concluded. 30 per cent of the construction companies whose activity remains strongly connected with the projects related to the PNRR foresees a reduction in expenditure in the first half of 2026. The overall liquidity position of the enterprises remained positive and stable and the conditions of access to credit were substantially unchanged.
More than a third of industry companies in the strict sense stated that they had used or intended to benefit from incentives related to Transition 4.0 and Transition 5.0 plans during the fourth quarter. The share is particularly high in the areas of food, paper, plastic, glass and metal production, while it drops to 13 percent in services. Among the companies that benefit from these incentives, the share of those who claim to use them for already planned investments is substantially similar to that of those who intend to employ them for new investments.
In the fourth quarter of 2025 the growth on the twelve months of sales prices fixed by enterprises has been slightly reduced as a whole: has slowed down three-tenths of point (at 1.7 percent) in services, has slightly increased in industry in the strict sense (at 1.9) and is again climbed in buildings (at 3.4). In the next 12 months the variation of the lists would remain moderate in industry and services (1.9) and more supported in construction (3.6 percent). The cost of work and raw materials remain the determining factors for the expected price dynamics. Enterprises have seen slightly down the expectations on consumer inflation on all forecasting horizons: 1.6 percent to 6 months, 1.7 to 12 months and 1.8 to 24 months (respectively from 1.8, 1.8 and 1.9 percent in the previous survey). The expectations are homogeneous between companies of different sectors and sizes and in the different areas of the country.
– photos of repertoire IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
