ROMA (ITALPRESS) – According to the Bank of Italy, projections for the Italian economy for the period 2026-2028 are strongly influenced by the evolution of the crisis in the Middle East and its impact on commodity prices. In the forecasts it is assumed that the prices of crude oil and natural gas, derived from the quotations of the futures contracts, remain elevated until the first months of next year, and then attenuate over time.
Interest rates rise on all deadlines, resulting in a gradual increase in funding costs for households and businesses across the forecast horizon. World trade is progressively strengthened, reflecting the hypothesis of a gradual dissolution of uncertainty and the continuation of the expanding phase of investments attributable to artificial intelligence.
On the basis of these assumptions, the Bank of Italy estimates that Italy’s GDP grew by 0.9% in 2026, by 0.7% in 2027 and by 0.8% in 2028; net of the correction for working days, the increase in three years would be 1%, 0.7% and 0.6% respectively.
In the second half of the current year and in the first of 2027, household spending would be mainly affected by the strong rise in energy products on international markets; it would resume vigor later, with the attenuation of the effects linked to the Middle East crisis. The growth of exports would be supported by the strengthening of international trade; it would be less than that of potential foreign demand, partly driven by the supply chain of high-tech goods, to which Italy still participates to a limited extent.
Employment would continue to rise at a moderate rate and the unemployment rate would remain almost stable along the pre-visual horizon, on levels around 6%. Consumer inflation would rise to 3.2% this year, reaching a peak in the fourth quarter, driven by the energy component; it would fall to 2.4 in 2027 and 1.7 in 2028. Net of energy and food, the increase in consumer prices would be around 2% along the entire pre-visual horizon. Compared to the projections published last June, the growth estimates were revised at 0.4 percentage points in 2026, 0.3 in 2027, and the fall of 0.1 percentage points in 2028.
Revision to the rise for the current year reflects an impact of the conflict in the Middle East less marked than expected in June, with positive drag effects also for 2027. For the last year, the positive review would also contribute to the increased energy security and defence expenditure in the DPFP 2026. Inflation forecasts were revised at 0.1 percentage points in the current year and 0.4 in the next year, mainly due to the higher prices of raw materials and refined petroleum products; for 2028 they were corrected at a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, due to more marked negative effects linked to the reduction of energy quotations. For the two-year period 2026-27 the growth and inflation projections shown in this box are similar to those formulated more recently by the main institutional forecasters. The uncertainty surrounding these projections remains high.
-Photo IPA Agency-
(ITALPRESS).
