ROMA (ITALPRESS) – If a minor working age population involves a reduction in growth potential, estimates indicate, in the absence of interventions, GDP levels which could be less than 18% in 2050 and more than 30% in 2080. Four identified levers on which to concentrate targeted interventions to fully recover such loss: young people, women, employed graduates and migratory balances. This is what emerges from the investigation promoted by the Abi, carried out in the activities of the strategic technical committee “Demographs and banking services”, presented at the headquarters of the Association.
The consequences of the reduction of the active population and the progressive aging of society on growth, work, inequalities and needs of the different population groups are one of the main structural challenges for the Italian economy. According to Istat forecasts recalled by the Abi survey, the Italian population could decrease by more than 13 million people by 2080, falling from current 59 million to approximately 45.8 million. At the same time, the population share with more than 67 years would rise to 31%.
The working-age population would reduce by more than 13 million units, falling from the current 67.3% of the total, to 58.2% in 2050 and 57.3% in 2080, with more pronounced dynamics in the Mezzogiorno. If today 100 people in working age support 49 people among young people and the elderly, in 2050 they should support almost 72, in 2080 about 75. The incidence of elderly people on working age would range from 30.5% to 52.8% in 2050, to 54.7% in 2080.
Compared to a stable population scenario and unchanged employment level, the simulations show that, in the absence of interventions, the only demographic dynamic could result in a reduction in GDP of more than 30% in 2080, with already evident effects in the medium term: in 2050 GDP would be less than 18%. According to the survey, however, there are levers on which to intervene to reduce the impact of demographic growth dynamics, filling the gap with Europe in youth and female employment and in the share of graduates employed on the total workforce as well as an optimization of regular migration flows. The combined effect of all hypothesized measures could lead, in the long term, to compensate entirely for the negative impact of the demographic decline on growth.
The analysis takes pictures of a banking world already committed to responding to the challenges posed by the demographic transition and, at the same time, oriented to develop solutions that meet new needs. This set of good practices and measures, currently in place, were mapped into the work of the Committee.
“The demographic transition – said Gianni Franco Papa, president of the Strategic Technical Committee Abi and Ad of Bper – is a theme to manage strategically and according to a system logic. The decline of births, the aging and transformation of the structure of the population confront us with significant economic, social and cultural challenges, with profound impacts also on the labour market, as well as increasing needs and new fragility but also opportunities. With early retirement planning, health protection, support for generational transition and youth and female entrepreneurship, the bank can become a benchmark, able to offer integrated solutions and qualified advice.”.
“We have a strong responsibility to be part of the solution, identifying the priority areas to address resources, with investments in support of innovation, productivity, longevity services. The results of this survey show that the country has the potential to promote sustainable growth, but it serves to move at multiple levels, in the same direction,” he added.
“In the face of the structural change in place – Marco Elio Rottigni, general manager Abi – the banking world is ready to collaborate with the institutions to define new measures to promote the development and sustainability of the country. Our analyses, conducted in the context of the activities promoted by Abi with the banks to respond to the challenges with which the sector is and will be called to confront, highlight how targeted interventions on some key factors can significantly reduce the negative impact of demographic dynamics on economic growth. In this context, the role of banks extends to the broadest support for families and enterprises, to interpret in an advanced and strategic way increasingly heterogeneous, financial and also social and cultural needs.”.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
