ROMA (ITALPRESS) – The outbreak of the Middle East war between the United States and Iran, with the consequent blocking of the Hormuz Strait and the slowing down of commercial traffics in the area, significantly modified the prospects of the global economy for 2026, generating price rises of raw materials of proportions that were not seen from 2022, following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. This is what emerges from the new Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis report created by the Research Office of the Fucino Bank, directed by Vladimiro Giacchè.
The report identifies three basic trends in the conflict and its impact on the global economy: the short-term attainment of stable peace appears unlikely; the productive capacity of the Gulf countries is compromised significantly; the inflationary shock will hardly remain confined to the energy component alone: it is very likely that the relapses will gradually be transmitted to the rest of the economy (‘corè’).
In the United States, March inflation rose to 3.3% (from 2.4% in February), reporting that, despite a substantial energy autonomy, the US economy is not immune to strong declines. In the Euro Area, inflation has increased by 110 basic points, from 1.9% of February to 3.0% of April: so far the core component has been contained, but the persistence of energy shock increases the risk of effects of second impact.
China can count on a relatively less oil-dependent energy mix (not more than 20% of the total), while remaining exposed because more than half of the imported crude oil comes from the Gulf area. For Europe, already weakened by the reduced availability of Russian energy raw materials, the impact of the crisis is likely to be more severe.
In Italy in April inflation increased by 130 basic points, reaching 2.9%, with energy prices at +9.7% per year. A possible escalation could push Italy towards the most severe scenario of the Bank of Italy’s latest macroeconomic projections: GDP growth at zero in 2026 and lower probability of exit from the excessive deficit procedure. In Europe, Germany – a large net energy importer – risks a reduction in the prospects for recovery. In this context, the BTP-Bund spread was first raised over 100 (from about 60 at the end of February) and then dropped under 80 base points, suggesting that the trust of investors on Italian debt did not deteriorate radically.
On the monetary policy front, the ECB has not yet reported a new tightening, but the probability of a forthcoming increase in the rates of 25 basic points is growing. Even in the absence of marked uprisings, the expected scenario is of higher rates farther than the expectations of beginning 2026.
– Press Office photos Banca del Fucino –
(ITALPRESS).
