ROMA (ITALPRESS) – The progressive rise in energy and fuel prices is likely to produce a significant impact on Italian household budgets over 2026, with direct effects on micro and small businesses. If the oil and gas quotations remain at the current levels in the coming months, the increase in costs for light, gas, fuel and food (which together with the house account for more than 40% of the monthly expenditure) could result in an increased spending for an average family around a thousand euros in 2026, with peaks up to 1,200-1,300 euros for families with children and increased energy consumption intensity. This is what the CNA estimates by pointing out, in detail, for energy bills an increase between 300 and 400 euros per year; the expenditure for fuels grows between 200 and 300 euros, with more relevant impacts for commuters; the indirect effect on food prices entails an increase between 250 and 350 euros per year. The dynamics are also strongly differentiated: low-income families and pensioners are more exposed, due to the high incidence of essential expenses; large families and those living in less-used areas of public transport suffer more significant impacts; urban singles have more content effects. For example, a family with two children, big house and two cars can pay up to 1,500 euros more per year. It is the most exposed case: more consumption, more energy, more expenditure. The pair of commuters passes it slightly better: the fuel becomes the dominant voice, and the total oscillates between 900 and 1,200 euros.
Those who live alone in the city, perhaps without a car, can limit the damage: 400-500 euros more per year. Always an increase, but definitely more manageable. The growth of nominal income, estimated between 2.5% and 3%, is only partially able to compensate for an inflation expected between 2.7% and 3%, resulting in a substantial stagnation or slight reduction in purchasing power. In this context the risk is a slowdown in domestic demand, with immediate effects on micro and small enterprises in the trade, services and production sectors. For the Confederation, it is therefore necessary: to strengthen the containment measures of energy costs; to support the available income of families; to encourage investments in energy efficiency for enterprises and citizens. The leap of oil and gas quotations also impacts on business investment. In a moderate scenario, CNA estimates a contraction of gross fixed investments in the order of 2% while in case of prolonged shock the reduction can reach 4% with a negative effect on GDP ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 points. “The holding of consumption and investments – says CNA President Dario Costantini – is a decisive factor in safeguarding the economy. Without targeted intervention, the current price dynamic is likely to result in a brake for the entire production system.”.
– photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
