ROMA (ITALPRESS) – “It has been reported that despite the trend of the economy in the final part of 2025 has been characterized by predominantly positive indicators, the macroeconomic forecasts for the current year and for the next three years highlight a worsening of the framework of reference determining a reduction of the prospects of growth; the effects of the new energy shock, consequence of the Middle East war, highlight cyclical indicators in weakening and a decrease of the confidence of families”. It is illustrated by the representatives of the Court of Auditors during the audition in the joint committees Budget of Chamber and Senate, on the examination of the Public Finance Document 2026.
“The presence, in this context, of macroeconomic, structural and positive public finance fundamentals” is read in the report, “does not therefore exclude that in the case of worsening the economic framework, it is necessary to support the available incomes of families and the liquidity of enterprises even if the need to respect European parameters leaves reduced tax spaces. It is therefore confirmed the need, on the one hand, to maintain control over the public accounts, and, on the other, to ensure a more careful selection of the interventions to start in order to counter the effects of the regrowth of the energy raw materials and, consequently, to redefine the priorities with an increasing attention to the cost assessment – effectiveness that must guide the action of the Government in the definition of the measures to be implemented”.
“The system of the document reflects an approach based on realism and prudence, motivated by the high uncertainty of the international geopolitical landscape and the repercussions of conflicts in the Middle East”. For the Court of Auditors “in this scenario, the real GDP growth estimates for 2026 were revised to 0.6 percent, with a slight downward correction compared to 0.7 percent indicated in the October programmatic Document, forecast that extends to 2027 and then traces to 0.8 percent in the two-year period 2028-2029. This trajectory, which incorporates the impulse of investments linked to the National Plan of recovery and resilience (Pnrr), projects a cumulative increase of the gross domestic product of 2.8 percentage points in the period considered, placing itself between the median and the upper limit of the ratings of the Upb panel”.
RAPPORTO DEBITO/PIL AL 137,1% CONTRO IL PREVISTO 136,2%
“After the presentation, last autumn, of the Public Finance Planning Document, the data related to the debt highlighted sensitive deviations regarding expectations. Also because of a lively trend in demand, at the end of 2025 the gross debt stock of public administrations was almost 20 billion higher than estimated in October. In a context in which the national accounting data recorded a gross domestic product value slightly lower than expectations, in the first year of vigence of the new European budgetary rules, the debt/Pil ratio was thus placed at 137.1 percent versus 136,2 provided for in the Dpef and 136,9 of the Middle-Term Budget Structural Plan”.
Entering the detail we read that “the new information indicates the consolidation of a upward trend that the index had already recorded in 2024 (Table 5) and mark a rise of more significant dimensions than it had been put into account. In the balance sheet 2025 the growth of the debt/Pil ratio, which was expected to encrypt in 1.3 points of GDP in the last October Dpef, has in fact settled in 2.4 points, as a result of a plurality of factors, including the worsened conditions of the economy, an acceleration of expenditure that has generated improvements of the primary lower than the programmed and, above all, the cash implications of the Superbonus”.
AVVIARE STAGIONE PROGRAMMATICA SU SPESA INVESTIMENTI
“It is of particular importance that the acceleration of expenditure for interventions, in the end, financed with the Pnrr in order to guarantee the main objective for the modernization of the country, as well as the development of the reform measures and investments directed to the extension of the period of adjustment of the Psb and susceptible to determining new pressures on expenditure attributable to expenses for defense, ageing of the population, protection of health and transformation of the economies”.
In the context of infrastructure spending, the main growth engine, underlined as reiterated in the Document, the importance of decisions oriented to national cohesion, the reduction of differences and the strengthening of accessibility that requires careful consideration in view of the progressive exhaustion of the effects produced by the resources injected into the system with the Pnrr.
For the Court of Auditors “it seems urgent, to act on the structural conditions that hinder the actual realization of the planned interventions and, at the same time, to start a new programme season, oriented to policy choices that can strengthen the effectiveness of investment spending and its contribution to the development objectives outlined in the Document. This requires us to reconcile the realization of strategic infrastructures of national importance with a more effective support for local investments, also in order to ensure a more balanced and sustainable public investment profile over time.”.
(ITALPRESS).
