MILAN (ITALPRESS) – The effect of war in the Middle East on the Italian economy is already a reality. The Confimprese-Jakala Permanent Observatory on consumption shows a decrease of -1.3% at the value of the total market in March 2026 on March 2025. Consumptions drop, confidence drops, the shopping cart increases, families tighten the strings of the bag and are oriented to a precautionary saving.
Moreover the same international monetary fund, at this stage, is updating the forecasts every two weeks and the expected growth of Italy has been restricted to 0.5% for this year and next, among the lowest in Europe.
In this conjunctural phase, even small variations in energy prices have an amplified effect, because they are quickly translated into widespread waste and a greater perception of uncertainty. On the retail side, there is a weakening of volumes accompanied by a growing difficulty in transferring costs downstream, with an impact on margins. The risk is to enter a phase of widespread trust, in which families and operators postpone consumer and investment decisions.
“The first effects of uncertainty due to war in the Middle East are already seen and affect all sectors of activity transversally. We expect great volatility in trends – explains Mario Maiocchi, Director of Confimprese Studies –, consumers adopt more prudent behaviors, particularly penalizing some retail sectors. It is a signal that should be read carefully: more than a simple conjunctural slowdown, it highlights the fragility of internal demand than external shocks. For retail it means volumes in weakening and margins under pressure, in an already complex context. Without a strengthening of confidence and a containment of costs, the risk is that the weakness of consumption will continue in the coming months.”.
The commodity sectors are all in negative territory. Clothing-accessories and catering record a -0.9%, both worsening compared to the previous month of February. Other retail continues the decline that has marked the sector since the beginning of the year and closes to -2,0%. In the sales channels the only ones in parity to +0.5% are the shopping centers, while they flettono the high street to -1.2% and the shops proximity to -1.3%. In the Aosta Valley regions at +3.3%. Friuli Venezia Giulia shows the worst trends at -5.5%.
-Photo IPA Agency-
(ITALPRESS).
