ROMA (ITALPRESS) – Despite the uncertainty it continues to dominate the internal and international economic scenarios, new statistical evidence brings out some positive ideas: from the excellent September for foreign tourism, to the statistical rebound of industrial production in the same month, up to the good hold of exchanges with abroad, albeit strongly oscillating from month to month. It reveals Confcommercio’s analysis.
These elements, within a context of inflationary moderation – now given for structural after the flames of the past – and increasing real incomes, also supported by a tonic labour market, involve slight improvements in consumption and prospects of increased trust and, consequently, less pessimistic forecasts not so much on the current year, in a certain sense compromised in terms of growth, as on the next that could also reach a change of GDP to 1%. It is not possible, therefore, to exclude a more favourable intonation of the economy also because the first estimates would indicate a consolidation of this perspective even in October and November. These are weak signals, waiting for confirmation, but that it would be inappropriate to neglect, much more than for the bimester October-November the monthly GDP indicates a conjunctural growth of four tenths of point consistent with a possible trend change of the last quarter of the current year around 1%.
In this context, despite the progress recorded in terms of return of inflation, fell in October to 1.2%, with the positive effects on the dynamics of the real income of households, consumption is confirmed as the weak link of the chain. In September, volume sales recorded a negative trend confirming and amplifying the difficulties of many consumer segments. However, this dynamic seems to have been marginally modified in October. Household spending, measured in the metric of the ICC, increases by a tenth point compared to October 2024. If the year-on-year variation appears marginal, the change in the balance (+0.4% compared to September) leads to a greater confidence in the possible evolution of demand in the coming months.
The question is negative for automotive, clothing and footwear, food, furniture and household appliances. The services, returned to grow after a disappointing quarter, confirm, even in recent months of 2025, the most dynamic component. Consumer prices are, as a whole, falling for a few months. In November, Confcommercio’s estimate is a further slight decline (-0.1%) with an annual change of 1.2%. The expectations are an additional return to the price dynamics of food and other products and services purchased more frequently by families. The consolidation of these dynamics should contribute to the recovery of the confidence of families by giving more momentum to demand for consumption.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS)
