The morning of February 2, 2026, at the Staten Island Zoo, the usual ceremony of the Groundhog Day, the Day of the Marmotta, that is the annual event in which the local marmot, Staten Island Chuck, is called to “predict” the trend of the season. According to tradition, if the animal sees its shadow after coming out of the den, winter is destined to last another six weeks; If not, spring is considered imminent. This year Chuck saw his shadow, confirming the least anticipated scenario after a period already marked by rigid temperatures.
Chuck’s prediction was strengthened by Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous Marble in the United States, who on the same day, in Pennsylvania, gave the same response. It is not frequent that the two “ weather authorities” coincide: in recent years their indications are often divergent, with a rare alignment only in 2024, when both had announced an early spring. This time, however, the deal between Chuck and Phil has produced a little appreciated forecast to those who hoped for a rapid change of season.
The Staten Island event took place according to the consolidated ritual: first the countdown, then the exit of the marmot and finally the classic immediate reaction of the public. At the sight of the shadow, the response of the present was a rain of whistles and ironic comments, which reality became an integral part of the ceremony. Marmotta Day, celebrated in the United States for over a century, is now more a cultural event than a real tool of forecasting, but continues to catalyze media attention even outside the USA.
From the statistical point of view, the forecasts of marmots remain unreliable. Punxsutawney Phil has an estimated accuracy rate between 35 and 40 percent, depending on the analyses considered: practically less than the launch of a coin. Chuck, on the contrary, is often referred to as one of the most “precious” specimens, with estimates that attribute him an accuracy close to 80%. These are indicative data, based on ex post comparisons with the real climate trend and not on recognised scientific methods.
However, the prediction of Dunkirk Dave, an active marmot in the western part of the state of New York, has broken. Dave did not see his shadow and then announced an early spring. Its leaders emphasize a particularity of the method: in Dunkirk the forecast is done with the animal on the ground, not raised in the air as it happens in Punxsutawney. The trainer Bob Will explained that this practice has been followed for over 50 years and would be the basis of a record of reliability considered superior to other locations.
Beyond ceremonies, the astronomical calendar remains the only sure reference: winter will officially end with the spring equinox, scheduled for March 20 at 10:46 hours of the eastern coast. The first meteorological indications for spring 2026 in New York speak of an unstable transition phase, with alternation of residual cold and early thermal rise. In practical terms, the message remains the same: It is not yet time to store coats and feathers.
Article The marmots said that winter is not yet finished comes from IlNewyorkese.
