ROMA (ITALPRESS) – Due to its characteristics the Andes virus (Andv), the strain of Hantavirus that gave rise to the epidemic on the ship from cruise in the past weeks, very difficult can give large outbreaks even if a case is introduced in a population still completely susceptible. A study, based on mathematical models, just published by the magazine Eurosurveillance. The study of Iss researchers and the Bruno Kessler Foundation has simulated the potential spread of the virus after the introduction of a single case in a generic population, processing different scenarios according to the percentage of cases effectively isolated.
“According to the results of the analysis – the authors write in the conclusions – four months after the beginning of the symptoms of the index case the focolaio would hardly exceed 50 cases, with a high probability of extinction of transmission, especially if more than half of the cases were effectively isolated from the beginning.”.
Effective isolation of cases, still explain the authors, is made possible by the characteristics of the virus. The data available in fact show that infections are mostly symptomatic and severe, and the incubation period very long and the time that passes between the occurrence of symptoms of a primary case and a secondary one allow the authorities to have more time to trace contacts before they become contagious.
However, the authors point out that “the analysis is based on epidemiological parameters estimated for a single outbreak, an element that represents one of the main limits of the analysis, since these conditions may not be fully overlapped with different contexts or an epidemiological situation such as the present one.”.
“The results of the analysis – the article concludes – confirm the assessment made by international authorities of a low or very low risk of virus spread in the general population. Although the results suggest a scenario of a limited number of cases even after several months of unmixed transmission, high lethalness associated with the virus requires the implementation of the greatest possible precautions to limit the spread of the infection. The results also emphasise that early diagnosis and case isolation are key measures to stop spreading in communities.”.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
